The second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final will see Chelsea and Middlesbrough battling for a place in the final. Our soccer betting odds have the Blues as overwhelming favorites to win in regulation.
With three upcoming matches over nine days, Mauricio Pochettino will be happy to have had 10 days off since their last match. But that’s not enough to get any of his injured players back, with nearly a full squad either on the trainer’s table or away for international duty. Still, he has the quality at his disposal to overcome a 1-0 deficit from the first leg and reach the final.
Middlesbrough will hope to somehow do enough to make that advantage count. They were fortunate to escape with the win in the first leg after conceding 18 shots at home, ending a nine-match losing streak against the Blues. Now they must travel to Stamford Bridge, where manager Michael Carrick’s side hasn’t won in their last 24 visits.
Our Chelsea vs. Middlesbrough picks and predictions for the EFL Cup semi-final on Tuesday, January 23 explain why neither side is likely to walk away unscathed, and how that benefits you as a bettor.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough best odds
| -455 | Moneyline | +1,000 |
| +600 | Draw | +600 |
| Over 2.5 (-250) | Total | Under 2.5 (+187) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on January 23, 2024.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough picks and predictions
It’s not just that Chelsea are missing players, but where they’re missed. Not a single area of the pitch has been spared, but their defense has been hit hardest of all.
Goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is injured, as are defenders Reece James, Wesley Fofana, and Marc Cucurella. Trevoh Chalobah is also a doubt for the match.
While they did see Ben Chilwell return with a cameo appearance in their win over Fulham, he’s still probably not at a place where he can start. The trade-off in that fixture was the loss of Malo Gusto, who was forced off in stoppage time with an injury.
That’s led to Chelsea having to field a side riddled with inexperience, plus a lack of familiarity at the back. Middlesbrough took advantage of that in the first leg, as they failed to pick up the run of Hayden Hackney. Isaiah Jones was able to pick him out between four Blues after a long ball into the final third, for the only goal of the match.
But Middlesbrough nearly scored in the opening minute. Emmanuel Lath had a good chance inside 60 seconds but hit it right at the keeper, signifying the side’s intent. They managed six shots on the day, including three from inside the penalty area, and should’ve done better with an opportunity just three minutes after halftime.
Speaking of doing better, Chelsea will still be wondering how they failed to score a goal. Despite having an xG of 2.60 for the match, the Blues failed to find the back of the net with any of their 18 shots on the day. Their wasteful finishing was punished, as they put just five efforts on goal and came up empty despite three big chances.
Pochettino may tinker a bit with the front line, where he has midfielder Cole Palmer playing as a makeshift striker in the absence of Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku. Either way, he has more than enough weapons to find at least one goal today, if not more.
And if the Blues want to advance, they will need more than one goal. That’s because I fully expect Middlesbrough to once again breach the Chelsea defense. They’ve had a solid campaign on the road, having been shut out just twice in 19 away fixtures in all competitions.
Chelsea have managed three clean sheets in their last five matches at Stamford Bridge, but I don’t see that happening again today. Middlesbrough are third in the EFL Championship in shots on target this season, and only Plymouth Argyle puts a higher percentage of efforts on target.
They only hold the eighth-most possession per match of any team in the league, and they were happy to cede 72% possession to Chelsea in the first leg. And despite that, they still put nearly half as many shots on goal as the Blues from six efforts.
So we’re backing both teams to find the back of the net, which TonyBet is offering at -118 odds. Then sit back and enjoy what should be an entertaining fixture.
My best bet: Both teams to score — Yes (-118 at TonyBet)
