The Jacksonville Jaguars will try to get to 6-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the AFC South this week as they travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers as a 2.5-point road favorite with bettors possibly moving the NFL odds to -3 by the weekend.
The Steelers have ripped off back-to-back wins vs. the Rams and Ravens but the Jaguars are getting healthier and opposing receivers have had their way with this Steelers’ defense. With Christian Kirk becoming the No.1 option in this passing attack, should bettors be hitting the Over on the receiver’s growing yardage prop?
I break down the Week 8 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Steelers on October 29.
Jaguars vs Steelers odds
Jaguars vs Steelers predictions
Christian Kirk has topped 50 yards receiving in five of his last six games and has had at least 49 yards in all six of them. He’s drawing a 25% target share over that time and with Zay Jones likely out again, the O-line getting healthier, and the Pittsburgh Steelers getting slaughtered by opposing wide receivers (14.2 catches, 206.3 yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game), Kirk has a great matchup in Week 8.
Kirk is coming off a 6/90/1 line last week vs. the Saints where Trevor Lawrence was dealing with a knee injury, threw for just 204 yards, and the Jags played with the lead for the majority of the game. Since Week 2, he ranks in the Top 15 in catches of 10+ yards (17) and 20+ yards (seven) and his four catches of 30+ yards rank 4th. He also has more receiving yards than Davante Adams over this stretch.
The Pittsburgh Steelers allowed 154 yards to Puka Nacua last week on eight catches, Zay Flowers and Nelson Ahgolor combined for nine catches and 137 yards in Week 5, Nico Collins posted a 7/168/2 line in Week 4, and Davante Adams had a 13/172/2 line in Week 3. Pittsburgh has given it up to opposing top receivers.
Kirk has a 71% catch rate which is well above Calvin Ridley’s 56% as the latter is struggling to get separation. Ridley ranks 79th in with an average of 1.79 yards of separation per target. That’s leading to an 18.2% contested catch rate which ranks 85th in football.
Kirk has established himself as the No.1 receiver in this offense and his receiving total is not reflecting that. Kirk’s receiving total has closed higher than this number in three straight weeks and I’m putting a half unit on his Over 20.5 yards longest receptions (-120) as this is a prop he’s hit the Over in every game since Week 2.
My best bet: Christian Kirk Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jaguars vs Steelers same-game parlay
Kirk 75+ receiving yardsJaguars moneylineHarris Under 45.5 rushing yards
+750 at bet365
I’m hitting Kirk’s milestone market here to boost the odds. Not many teams are allowing more yards to opposing WRs and Kirk has hit this number in three of his last four contests as Lawrence continues to look his way instead of Ridley’s.
I like the Jaguars but taking less risk here and grabbing the ML. The Jaguars defense is legit and is getting its starting safety back in Campbell.
Najee Harris continues to run for nothing. He just ran for his first TD last week and has never posted better than 3.9 yards per carry in any season. He’s splitting snaps with Jaylen Warren and there is a chance Anthony McFarland could join the rotation.
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Jaguars vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
Lawrence led the Jags to victory in Week 7 despite a knee injury and now with extra rest and some possible key bodies returning this Sunday, the Jaguars have been taking plenty of money moving this look-ahead line of -1 to -2.5 and possibly further.
As of Thursday afternoon, the Jaguars were sitting at -2.5 with some books moving to a soft -3. Last Thursday’s performance vs. the Saints wasn’t the best, but Jacksonville covered and wasn’t fully healthy.
This week, they could be getting lineman Walker Little back and starting safety Tyson Campbell. Lawrence and lineman Brandon Sherff will be healthier as well after entering Week 7 with questionable tags but managing to play.
This is also a very underrated Jacksonville defense that ranks seventh in EPA/play and has been one of the best run-stopping units in the league ranking second in success rate vs. the run and holding opposing running backs to just 59.7 rushing yards per game (4th).
This is going to put more pressure on Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh passing game that sits in the bottom 10 in yards per pass and 31st in success rate per dropback. Pickett did complete a season-high 68% of his passes last week but that was coming out of the bye and the second-year passer had a 59% completion percentage through his first five games. Only five other offenses are gaining fewer yards per play on the season than Pittsburgh’s 4.7.
This line could easily close at -3 heading into the weekend.
The total was 41 on the look-ahead and has hit as high as 42. Pittsburgh has been cashing Under tickets all season long with a 1-5 O/U mark but it might be the weather that is driving some to take the Under as there was resistance on this total once it hit 42.
The forecast is calling for an 87% chance of rain to go along with 60-degree temperatures. Wind isn’t expected to be an issue and this rain forecast could also change the closer Sunday comes. If the weather looks good, this total could head back to 42.
I’ll be taking the Jagaurs -2.5 in my pick ‘em pools but doubt I’d lay a full field goal here. If the weather isn’t terrible, the Jaguars at -2.5 would have my confidence. Bettors could really see this Pittsburgh offense struggle vs. a healthier Jacksonville defense that isn’t getting a lot of credit.
